The Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is the largest flood that could conceivably be expected to occur at a particular location, usually estimated from probable maximum rainfall. The PMF defines the maximum extent of flood-prone land, that is, the floodplain.
The Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) measures the likelihood of a flood of a certain size or greater occurring in any given year, expressed as a percentage. For example, a 1% AEP flood has a 1% (or 1 in 100) chance of happening in any year. Though often called a “1-in-100-year flood,” this term is misleading, as such floods can occur multiple times within a century. Similarly, a 5% AEP flood has a 5% (or 1 in 20) chance of occurring in a given year.